Point Creep: Where Western Draw Odds Are Rising Fastest
Every year it takes more points to draw the best Western tags. Here's what point creep is, why it happens, and the units climbing fastest — ranked from real draw data across 16 state-and-species combinations.
What is point creep?
Point creep is the steady rise in the number of preference or bonus points it takes to draw a limited-entry hunt. As more hunters accumulate points each year, the draw threshold for the most sought-after units climbs — so a tag you could draw with 5 points a few years ago might now require 7 or 8.
Tag supply is roughly fixed while the pool of point-holders grows every year. In preference-point states the highest point-holders draw first, so the cutoff rises as that top group swells. Units with the best trophy quality or access see the fastest creep.
Where point creep is worst
Average annual rise in points-to-draw, by state and species. Higher means the cutoff is climbing faster.
| State & species | Avg creep | Units rising |
|---|---|---|
| Utah Bison | +1.1/yr | 8 |
| Utah Elk | +1/yr | 81 |
| Utah Mule deer | +1/yr | 51 |
| Wyoming Mule deer | +1/yr | 15 |
| Wyoming Whitetail | +1/yr | 15 |
| Wyoming Elk | +0.9/yr | 29 |
| Utah Pronghorn | +0.9/yr | 18 |
| Utah Moose | +0.9/yr | 13 |
| Utah Bighorn sheep | +0.8/yr | 25 |
| Colorado Pronghorn | +0.8/yr | 22 |
| Utah Mountain goat | +0.8/yr | 9 |
| Wyoming Pronghorn | +0.7/yr | 71 |
| Colorado Mule deer | +0.7/yr | 21 |
| South Dakota Pronghorn | +0.7/yr | 2 |
| Colorado Elk | +0.6/yr | 17 |
| South Dakota Whitetail | +0.4/yr | 10 |
The 20 fastest-creeping units
Individual hunts where the draw threshold is rising fastest (407 units are creeping in total). Click any unit for its full odds curve.
| Unit | State & species | Creep |
|---|---|---|
| Big Sandy | Wyoming Mule deer | +2/yr |
| Big Sandy | Wyoming Whitetail | +2/yr |
| Box Elder, Grouse Creek Limited Entry Mid | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| Diamond Mtn Limited Entry Late | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| Grinnell | Wyoming Mule deer | +2/yr |
| Grinnell | Wyoming Whitetail | +2/yr |
| GMU 2 | Colorado Mule deer | +2/yr |
| Beaver, East Limited Entry Late | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| Diamond Mtn/Bonanza Limited Entry | Utah Pronghorn | +2/yr |
| Grinnell | Wyoming Elk | +2/yr |
| Cache, Meadowville Limited Entry Mid | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| GMU 83 | Colorado Pronghorn | +2/yr |
| GMU 100 | Colorado Pronghorn | +2/yr |
| Book Cliffs, Little Creek/South OIAL | Utah Bison | +2/yr |
| West Ridge CWMU | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| Cache, Meadowville Limited Entry Early | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| Old Woman Plateau CWMU | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| Preston Nutter Ranch CWMU | Utah Elk | +2/yr |
| DB1243 | Utah Mule deer | +2/yr |
| DB1231 | Utah Mule deer | +2/yr |
How to beat point creep
Target units where the threshold is flat or falling, apply for a unit before its points requirement passes what you can realistically bank, and track the trend year over year rather than assuming last year’s cutoff still holds.
- Compare a unit's points-to-draw against its trend before you commit years to it.
- Favor units where the threshold is flat — not every unit creeps.
- Track your points and application deadlines so you apply in the right year.
Track point creep on your units
Follow the units you're building points for and get application-deadline reminders so creep never catches you off guard.
Create a free account →Frequently asked
- What is point creep?
- Point creep is the steady rise in the number of preference or bonus points it takes to draw a limited-entry hunt. As more hunters accumulate points each year, the draw threshold for the most sought-after units climbs — so a tag you could draw with 5 points a few years ago might now require 7 or 8.
- Why does point creep happen?
- Tag supply is roughly fixed while the pool of point-holders grows every year. In preference-point states the highest point-holders draw first, so the cutoff rises as that top group swells. Units with the best trophy quality or access see the fastest creep.
- How do you beat point creep?
- Target units where the threshold is flat or falling, apply for a unit before its points requirement passes what you can realistically bank, and track the trend year over year rather than assuming last year’s cutoff still holds.